01 / Context
What is the market responding to?
Name the instrument and session. Note the information and event schedule available to you. Distinguish facts from a story about what participants might do.
The Open Desk / preparation before prediction
A VIEW.
AN ALTERNATIVE.
A REASON TO WAIT.
A preparation note is a record of what you know before the outcome. Use these questions to make your reasoning visible, then return to the same note when you review.
BUILD YOUR
SESSION NOTE.
Use a notebook or your own document. Keep the timestamp and the original wording when your view changes.
02 / Location
Where would the question matter?
Define the reference before price reaches it. Record why you chose it and whether it belongs to a completed session or a developing one.
03 / Alternatives
What would change your view?
Write a continuation scenario and a failure scenario. Describe observable behavior; avoid explanations that fit every possible outcome.
04 / Decision
What would justify action?
State the condition, the entry window and what cancels the idea. Waiting is a complete decision while those conditions are absent.
05 / Risk
What exposure does the idea require?
Check contract values, costs and order behavior. Define invalidation and a reason to pass if the available entry no longer fits the plan.
06 / Review
What will you practise tomorrow?
Keep the original note. Compare the plan with the evidence available at the time, your actions and the outcome. Choose one specific behavior to examine.
A fictional worked example
THE LEVEL
IS ONLY
THE START.
Synthetic prices and conditions. This is a writing exercise, not a current market view.
Before the interaction
“The previous range ended at 5,000. Price is approaching that boundary from below. I want to see whether a move above it is maintained. A brief trade above the level is not enough.”
The alternative
“If price returns inside the range and cannot regain the boundary, I will discard the initial continuation hypothesis. I will not treat buying activity alone as proof of acceptance.”
The reason to wait
“There is no decision while the required response is absent. If the entry moves too far from my defined invalidation, or an event changes the conditions I prepared for, I will reassess.”
The review
“Did I describe what actually happened? Did I change the condition after seeing the outcome? Did I mistake an eventual price move for evidence that an earlier entry was justified?”
Work through a decision exerciseGive the note a foundation
Read the auction.
Understand which session and distribution your reference describes.
Market ProfileMake exposure explicit.
Connect a decision to contract values, invalidation and execution assumptions.
Risk and position sizeReview the evidence.
Separate a teaching example from a test of a trading rule.
Our methodology